A study published in JAMA Network Open this June used statistical models to predict how common cancer might be among Generation X—those born between 1965 and 1980—as they reach their 60s.
Compared to the Silent Generation and Baby Boomer parents (born between 1936 and 1960), Generation X is expected to experience generally higher rates of cancer. It’s important to remember these findings are projections based on current trends—not set in stone.
“We aimed to identify where rates are unexpectedly rising in this descriptive study,” said Dr. Philip Rosenberg, a cancer epidemiologist and genetic biostatistician. The results suggest that without change, “cancer incidence in the U.S. could remain unacceptably high for decades,” the authors wrote.
Thyroid, Kidney, Blood, and Other Cancers Are Likely More Common in Generation X
To get a clearer picture of cancer trends for Generation X in the coming years, Rosenberg and colleagues analyzed cancer data from 3.8 million people in the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. They compared cancer rates in Generation X with those born between 1908 and 1964.
They examined actual cancer rates among older generations as they reached their 60s, then projected what cancer diagnoses might look like for Generation X as they hit that age—starting as soon as next year.
The data showed that while Baby Boomers had a lower cancer risk than their parents, Generation X likely won’t follow that trend. Except for Asian or Pacific Islander men, every demographic group born between 1965 and 1980 is expected to have higher cancer rates than the previous generation.
The study also compared specific cancer rates between Baby Boomers and Generation X. Rosenberg noted that cervical and lung cancer rates are expected to decline in Generation X, thanks to widespread cervical screening and lower smoking rates. Gallbladder and liver cancers may also decrease among Generation X men.
Rises in Other Cancer Types Could Offset These Declines
The biggest increases for both men and women in Generation X are expected in thyroid cancer diagnoses, followed by kidney and rectal cancers. Rates of colon cancer and leukemia are also projected to rise in both groups.
Women in Generation X are likely to see higher rates of uterine, pancreatic, and ovarian cancers, as well as non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Prostate cancer rates are expected to increase among men.
“These findings aren’t surprising—they actually confirm results from other studies,” said Dr. Otis Brawley, oncology and epidemiology professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, in an interview with Health.
Early-onset cancers, those diagnosed before age 50, have been rising since the 1990s. Other research shows gastrointestinal cancers—including colon and pancreatic cancers—are more frequently diagnosed in younger adults.
Cover photo: MTStock Studio/istockphoto.com
